Rams vs Lions: Is LA essentially the most harmful wild card workforce in NFL playoffs

In case you didn’t anticipate the Los Angeles Rams to make the playoffs this yr, you might be forgiven as a result of you may’t know what you couldn’t have recognized. The Rams have all of the gamers we knew that they might have going into the season, we simply didn’t know the way good these gamers would develop into as soon as they obtained rolling with Sean McVay.

May you will have recognized that Puka Nacua, the final choose of the fifth spherical, would set the NFL rookie document for catches and yards in a single season? Or that Kyren Williams, a fifth spherical choose a yr earlier than Puka, would lead the league in dashing yards per recreation? Or that Kobie Turner, a 3rd spherical choose, would tie Aaron Donald’s franchise document for sacks by a rookie and be in rivalry to win Defensive Rookie of the 12 months? Or that Ahkello Witherspoon, a cornerback who has bounced from workforce to workforce, would find yourself taking part in like L.A.’s new “Jalen Ramsey”?

These have been stunning developments for a workforce that went 5-12 final season after which needed to tear down the roster, however now that we all know what we all know there’s just one conclusion to attract concerning the 2023 L.A. Rams: They’re not only a wild card workforce.

They’re the final wild card workforce that anyone desires to face proper now.

Hottest workforce within the NFL?

By full season stats, the Rams enter the playoffs as a wild card and a six-seed within the NFC, however prior to now two months alone they’re taking part in way more like a top-5 workforce and one that’s flat out taking part in higher than the Lions since mid-November.

At 3-6 going into their bye week, the Rams regarded each bit as downtrodden as most anticipated them to be after an offseason of slicing corners simply with the intention to discipline a workforce beneath the wage cap. The Rams traded Jalen Ramsey and lower Bobby Wagner amongst different cap saving strikes, entered camp with 36 rookies, haven’t made a primary spherical draft choose since Jared Goff in 2016, and had the least-expensive protection within the NFL with most of that cash being allotted to 1 Aaron Donald.

The three-6 document made sense on the time, however L.A. got here out of the bye week trying extra just like the workforce that received the Tremendous Bowl than the one which Vegas projected with 6.5 wins.

The Rams have received seven of their final eight video games, with the one loss being an time beyond regulation thriller in opposition to the Baltimore Ravens, arguably the perfect workforce in soccer. With an offense that needed to rebuild its offensive line on a budget, traded its beginning working again in Week 2, began the season with Cooper Kupp on IR, and has the oldest beginning quarterback within the NFL on this facet of Joe Flacco, the Rams have been as explosive and harmful as any scoring menace within the league.

Over the past eight video games of the common season, the Rams ranked fourth in factors scored behind the Ravens, Cowboys, and 49ers. They’ve the fifth-best level differential in that point, +53, behind solely the Cowboys, Ravens, 49ers, and Payments.

The Rams and Lions completed facet by facet in EPA per play on offense and protection.

Possibly homefield benefit would be the distinction for the Lions, however beneath some other circumstances it’s truthful to say that the higher workforce and the one which has Tremendous Bowl-winning coaches and gamers is the L.A. Rams. That’s the kind of smoke that the majority division-winners don’t need in terms of the primary spherical, or deeper within the playoffs ought to McVay safe a win over his former quarterback and Stafford over his former workforce.

Sean McVay’s playoff expertise

This might be McVay’s eleventh playoff recreation regardless of solely changing into a head coach seven years in the past. How uncommon is it for a head coach to have 11 playoff video games in seven years? By comparability, Mike Tomlin went to 2 Tremendous Bowls in his first 4 years as Steelers head coach and even he didn’t coach his eleventh playoff recreation till he had been on the job for 10 seasons.

Ravens head coach John Harbaugh has coached solely seven playoff video games within the final 10 years. Not even Invoice Belichick coached as many playoff video games as McVay has since his 2017 hiring, having led the Patriots to 4 postseason appearances and eight playoff video games in that time frame.

Actually, if the Rams attain the Tremendous Bowl this yr, McVay could have coached as many playoff video games in his first seven seasons as the quantity that Belichick had in his first seven seasons with the Patriots, and New England received three Tremendous Bowls in that point. In fact, it could additionally imply that McVay went to a few Tremendous Bowls in his first seven years too.

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That have of understanding the distinction between teaching a playoff recreation and it being the common season definitely helped McVay from his first journey (when the Rams had been knocked out instantly) to his second (when the Rams reached the Tremendous Bowl) and now it could possibly be a bonus that L.A. has over a first-time playoff coach on the opposite facet in Dan Campbell.

Identified for teaching together with his coronary heart first and his head second, Campbell may turn out to be overwhelmed by the stakes of Detroit internet hosting a playoff recreation for the primary time in 30 years. Win or lose, Campbell’s going to be shedding tears on Sunday night time.

However for McVay, that is one other day on the workplace and since 2018 the Rams are 3-0 of their first playoff recreation of the postseason, together with because the underdog in a wild card highway recreation upset over the Seahawks in 2020 with Goff at quarterback. Tampa’s Todd Bowles is 0-1 within the playoffs, Inexperienced Bay’s Matt LaFleur is 2-3, Philadelphia’s Nick Sirianni is 2-2, after which there are the 2 extra skilled coaches in Kyle Shanahan, who’s 6-3, and Mike McCarthy, who’s 11-10.

However McVay, who’s 7-3 within the playoffs, he nonetheless has extra profession postseason wins than Campbell, Bowles, LaFleur, and Sirianni mixed.

Matthew Stafford has escaped the strain of being ‘Stat Padford’

The final time that Matthew Stafford began a wild card recreation, he had been 0-3 within the playoffs over the primary 12 years of his profession, all with the Lions. By the top of the postseason, he turned a winless profession right into a successful profession: 4-3 and Tremendous Bowl champion.

Dak Prescott or Brock Purdy may win MVP, Jalen Hurts went to the Tremendous Bowl final yr, and Jordan Love is a participant on the way in which up, however no quarterback within the NFC playoffs brings the expertise, arm expertise, and the nothing-to-lose-ness of Stafford. He’s coming into the postseason with nothing to show and all the pieces to realize, he’s in all probability the final quarterback that any workforce would need to face at this second.

He has confirmed he can win a playoff recreation and he has confirmed he can win the Tremendous Bowl.

Not solely did he win, Stafford needed to lead the Rams to a final minute win over Tom Brady’s Bucs, a fourth quarterback comeback over the 49ers within the NFC Championship, and a game-winning landing to Kupp within the Tremendous Bowl to defeat Joe Burrow.

This doesn’t resemble the participant who may “barely throw” and was considering retirement in accordance with an offseason report by Matthew Berry from the mix.

Stafford is arguably taking part in higher now than he did two years in the past when the Rams went 12-5 and received all of it. He didn’t throw as many scores, ending the yr with 24 touchdowns, 11 interceptions, and just below 4,000 yards, however the degree of issue was raised by the workforce nearly fully overhauling the supporting solid after which placing Kupp on IR to begin the season.

In comparison with the Tremendous Bowl offense, each offensive lineman is completely different apart from proper sort out Rob Havenstein, and the talent gamers round Stafford have been nearly fully overhauled with the exceptions of Kupp and Tyler Higbee. Puka Nacua and Kyren Williams weren’t added to the roster till the previous two drafts, the workforce traded away Cam Akers and Van Jefferson throughout the season, after which McVay needed to rotate by means of avenue free agent working backs when Williams obtained harm.

Kyren Williams ended up main all working backs with 95.3 dashing yards per recreation.

The Rams ranked seventh in scoring once they received the Tremendous Bowl however with an offense rebuilt on a budget following disastrous additions like Allen Robinson final season, L.A. was nonetheless ranked eighth in scoring this yr. That’s an unbelievable comeback for a man who “can barely throw”.

He can throw. He can win.

Large killers

For all of the groups within the NFC which might be hoping to make the Tremendous Bowl with out going through the 49ers, McVay’s Rams have satirically been labeled because the workforce that could possibly be finest suited to tug the upset: Not anticipated for a workforce that had misplaced 9 straight common season video games to the 49ers previous to Week 18’s recreation between Carson Wentz and Sam Darnold.

However there’s good purpose to suspect that McVay could possibly be the one to dethrone Kyle Shanahan from his primary seed. For one, the Rams are the final workforce to beat Shanahan within the playoffs when he wasn’t right down to his fourth quarterback.

L.A. defeated San Francisco within the 2021 NFC Championship 20-17, getting back from a 17-7 fourth quarter deficit to win, one thing that Shanahan has seen all too many occasions earlier than as a coach.

And although many key starters had been resting, the Rams did beat the 49ers within the last week of the season which if nothing else proves that McVay’s depth and the gamers that we don’t discuss are higher than most consider them to be. However the Rams did extra than simply beat the 49ers backups this yr.

They swept the Seattle Seahawks, preserving them out of the playoffs and contributing to the top of Pete Carroll’s 14-year tenure as the pinnacle coach. McVay had dominated Carroll within the sequence since 2017, even when the Seahawks had been excellent and the Rams weren’t. The Rams beat the Colts in Indy, when one other win would have gotten them into the playoffs. The Rams beat the Browns 36-19. They usually beat the Saints 30-22, one other workforce that will have made the playoffs if not for that loss to L.A..

However maybe essentially the most spectacular recreation of the season was a loss: The Rams went to Baltimore in Week 10, at 10 AM native time, and took the Ravens to time beyond regulation. A Baltimore workforce that had blown out the Lions 38-6, Seahawks 37-3, and Bengals 34-20 of their three earlier house video games, the Ravens wanted a miracle time beyond regulation punt return landing—McVay’s best weak spot being on particular groups—to beat the Rams.

So whether or not you’re the Lions, 49ers, Cowboys, Eagles, or Ravens, it appears each NFL playoff workforce would moderately not face the Rams proper now.

They scent hazard.