That is the Tremendous Bowl made for playing. The American Gaming Affiliation estimates that Individuals will wager a mixed $23.1 billion on the Massive Recreation this 12 months, up from $16 billion year-over-year. Whether or not it’s your first time betting on the large sport otherwise you’re a seasoned vet, you don’t wish to be inserting bets blindly. Take it from somebody who’s already put collectively in depth statistical deep-dives on this matchup: The percentages might be in your favor on this Sunday evening. Put in your greatest Danny Ocean impression, and prepare to rob Vegas blind this weekend with the very best bets of Tremendous Bowl LVIII.
Reba McEntire Nationwide Anthem 90.5 seconds
Take the beneath
I mentioned in our “Most Outlandish Prop Bets” column earlier this week that I assumed it was ridiculous for McEntire to go beneath 90 seconds on the Anthem. It’s a breakneck tempo that solely marching bands play at. Singers savor the second. They soak all of it in, and add little vocal prospers. Then I noticed this playlist compiled by Reba(‘s YouTube channel) herself. It makes up a handful of her most notable former runs on the Anthem. I used to be blown away. She is EFFICIENT. Nonetheless will get the vocal aptitude in, adlibs a bit, and nonetheless will get in nicely beneath the wire. A few of her runs through the World Sequence virtually end within the 70s. Her splits are loopy, hitting “rocket’s purple glare” routinely across the 35-second mark. I’ll add she will get slower with age – her anthem on the 1974 Rodeo was a breakneck 72 seconds, whereas her anthem at a 1999 Cowboys sport was precisely 90 seconds. If we’re being actually sharp, betting beneath 90 seconds might be chopping it shut, however any books the place you see a 1:35, or 1:40 line, hammer the beneath.
Patrick Mahomes 260.5 Passing Yards
Take the beneath
Mahomes is thought for his unbelievable achievements by way of the air. This virtually appears like a rat line. Mahomes has thrown beneath 260 yards in 37 of his 113 profession video games, playoffs or common season. Meaning we place this guess on any sport at random in Mahomes’ profession, we lose simply over two out of each thrice. Of these 37, although, 12 have occurred this season, with one coming within the playoffs towards Buffalo. Mahomes additionally threw for simply 182 yards throughout final 12 months’s Tremendous Bowl towards Philadelphia. The Chiefs quarterback doesn’t usually over-produce in Tremendous Bowls, both. With a lot better offenses than this one, Mahomes has by no means damaged 286 passing yards in a Tremendous Bowl. This can be a quarterback that may do something to win. That features taking a backseat to the run sport, or profitable together with his personal legs to make the most of the 49ers. There are comparable sharp traces on Purdy for yardage and go try totals, however I believe traces are going to be rather more favorable within the Mahomes division regardless of the same sport plans.
Christian McCaffrey 128.5 Speeding + Receiving Yards
Take the over
I believe it’s secure to say that everybody who has finished an oz. of analysis into this sport is aware of Christian McCaffrey goes to play an enormous half in San Francisco’s sport plan. The Chiefs have been abysmal stopping the run this season, and the 49ers are one of the vital run-heavy groups in soccer. This can be a completely set line. McCaffrey has eclipsed 128 all-purpose yards precisely 16 instances within the 32 video games he has performed for San Francisco. That is, nevertheless, a little bit of a hedge on how I believe McCaffrey will get these yards. The Chiefs are among the finest groups within the league at masking up routes beneath. Of the 354 routes McCaffrey ran in 2023, 173 of them have been both flats, shallows, or screens, in keeping with thirty third Crew’s The Edge. He runs the overwhelming majority of his routes (234 of 354) out of the backfield, that means they’re extra prone to find yourself within the short-yardage blanket the Chiefs cowl so nicely. The true juice on McCaffrey lies in his alternate speeding prop. Whilst you might decide McCaffrey getting over 128 all-purpose yards at -120, you will get his over 115 alternate speeding prop at +205. I’m too massive a coward, however possibly you’re not.
Rashee Rice 6.5 Receptions
Take the over
The Chiefs rookie has been the center and soul of this Chiefs receiving corps, working his catch totals up dramatically over the course of the season. Since Week 11 of the common season, Rice has solely fallen wanting the 6.5 receptions line twice in 9 video games – as soon as within the Week 17 matchup towards the Bengals, and as soon as within the Divisional Spherical matchup towards the Payments. This barely conflicts with my perception that the Chiefs may have a extra run-focused, methodical gameplan heading into Sunday, and Rice will certainly have his fingers full most definitely drawing Charvarius Ward as his predominant task, however when you suppose that is going to be a detailed sport in any respect, Rice is the man to guess on. Plus, his odds for six.5 catches are rather more pleasant (-115 at DraftKings) than Travis Kelce’s to catch the identical passes (-166 at DraftKings).
Brock Purdy 0.5 Interceptions
Take the over
Brock Purdy is an efficient quarterback, however he’s nonetheless younger and somewhat frantic. He’s superior within the Shanahan system as a result of he’s prepared to take pictures downfield and make some big-risk throws. Purdy’s additionally knocked as a result of he makes some big-risk throws at instances when he completely shouldn’t. Purdy is nice at escaping stress, however he makes extra turnover-worthy throws when pressured. The one approach the Chiefs are going to remain on this sport defensively is that if they power Purdy to make errors. Kansas Metropolis will get one blunder out of Purdy on Sunday.
Marquez Valdes-Scantling 19.5 Receiving Yards
Take the over
We touched on how loopy this line is within the “Outlandish Props” column, so I gained’t go lengthy right here, however Marquez Valdes-Scanting is the one semi-functional Chiefs receiver not named Rashee Rice. He’s additionally Kansas Metropolis’s greatest big-play risk. Valdes-Scantling averages 18.38 yards per reception in his playoff profession. This 12 months alone, MVS is placing up 25 yards per reception within the postseason. That is virtually solely a guess on “Will Marquez Valdes-Scantling catch one go within the Tremendous Bowl?” Should you’re bullish on that, the road for his receiving prop can also be set at 1.5 receptions.
Javon Hargrave 0.25 sacks
Take the over
Nick Bosa goes to be the large level of concentrate on the 49ers go rush, however the affect goes to be felt within the inside. With Joe Thuney struggling a torn pectoral, the Chiefs will possible be working Nick Allegretti at guard. Hargrave and Arik Armstead have been wonderful on the inside go rush this 12 months, and getting stress with out blitzing is a key think about stopping the Mahomes offense. You may decide both of the 49ers defensive tackles to get a sack, I simply selected Hargrave off sack complete and playoff efficiency.
First TD scored
Decide Deebo Samuel
Possibly it’s the Jameson Williams trickery burned into my mind from the NFC Championship, however I simply have a sense about this one. I’m going into the primary landing prop like this: Of all of the attainable permutations and combos of a landing taking place on this sport, who has essentially the most alternative to attain? McCaffrey as a dual-threat participant checks out right here, however I like Deebo on the greater odds. Samuel is likely one of the most frequent tackle-breakers within the NFL, leads the 49ers in yards after the catch, and serves as a runner and a receiver. I just like the possibilities of San Francisco working one thing round Samuel’s hyper-varied skillset on the opening drive to attain.
Will There Be A Scorigami?
No
For the uninitiated, a Scorigami is a time period invented by Jon Bois used to explain an entirely distinctive rating that’s by no means occurred earlier than in an NFL sport. I wish to guess sure on this. Scorigamis occur within the Tremendous Bowl as a result of an uptick in threat, the elevated desperation to attain, combined in with a little bit of bizarre luck. That being mentioned, when you look on the database of all scorigamis, we don’t have a ton of openings to work with. We’re anticipating this to be a defensive sport, so if we hypothetically capped the profitable crew’s level complete at 31 (4 commonplace landing/extra-point combos and a subject purpose), our home windows are bleak. 11 is a chance to look out for – you would image a crew being held to a subject purpose early, then scoring and going for 2 late. The numbers it traces up with, although, (12, 15, 18, 20, 22, 29) are more durable to ascertain. 8 has barely fewer openings beneath profitable scores simply as obtuse. The others would simply be one-off scores like 25-18, 18-9. To guess on Sure at +2000 just about comes right down to praying for a 20-11 end result, or begging for subject objectives and safeties.