The 2023 MLB Winter Conferences are set to get underway in the present day in Nashville. Actually the principle headline is the standing of free agent Shohei Ohtani, however his touchdown spot for subsequent season just isn’t the one main subject on the docket this week. Listed below are a number of the different main storylines to regulate because the 2023 Winter Conferences get underway.
MLB Draft Lottery
Final yr noticed the introduction of a brand new MLB Draft Lottery, underneath the league’s just lately carried out Collective Bargaining Settlement. Designed to dissuade groups from tanking, the MLB Draft Lottery enters groups the non-playoff groups in a lottery which locations the primary six alternatives within the upcoming draft.
There are additionally restrictions one what groups will be within the lottery primarily based on their revenue-sharing standing. For instance, the Washington Nationals completed with the fifth-worst report in baseball final yr. However as a result of the Nationals are one of many “payor” golf equipment — groups that give, moderately than obtain, income sharing {dollars} — they’re ineligible for a lottery choose in two-straight seasons.
Washington had the second-overall choose a season in the past.
Listed below are the percentages for this yr’s MLB Draft Lottery, which takes place this Tuesday on the Winter Conferences, together with every staff’s successful proportion from final season:
18.3 p.c — Athletics (.309)
18.3 — Royals (.346)
18.3 — Rockies (.364)
14.7 — White Sox (.377)
8.3 — Cardinals (.438)
6.1 — Angels (.451)
4.3 — Mets (.463)
3.0 — Pirates (.469)
2.0 — Guardians (.469)
1.6 — Tigers (.481)
1.2 — Purple Sox (.481)
1.0 — Giants (.488)
0.9 — Reds (.506)
0.7 — Padres (.506)
0.6 — Yankees (.506)
0.4 — Cubs (.512)
0.2 — Mariners (.543)
0.0 — Nationals (.438)
What massive market membership — or golf equipment — will swing massive?
As you’ll be able to see from the above record … some big-market groups had underperformed final season. The New York Mets, the New York Yankees, and the Boston Purple Sox are amongst these groups that struggled a yr in the past, however have the means to take a giant swing — or swings — throughout this offseason.
Now these groups have some proof that the payoff may very well be near-immediate.
In any case, the Texas Rangers spent over $800 million in free company over the previous two offseasons. The end result? A World Collection title this previous season.
As our personal Demetrius Bell argued right here, if the Rangers “purchased” a World Collection title, your staff can too.
And people big-market groups which are coming off down seasons is likely to be those to regulate.
What shock staff — or groups — go massive?
Given what we outlined above, we’d see a number of big-market groups splash the money over the following few days.
However might a stunning mid-market staff — or groups — go massive as properly?
Latest reporting signifies that one such staff on this class is the Toronto Blue Jays. Toronto has emerged as a contender within the Ohtani sweepstakes, though there are some hurdles dealing with their push for the star participant. As we’ll see in a second, the Blue Jays have additionally been linked to a different massive identify that may very well be on the transfer over the following few days.
Nevertheless, the Blue Jays aren’t the one staff on this class that may very well be aggressive this offseason. Two different groups to regulate are the Cincinnati Reds and the Baltimore Orioles. Each groups have gifted — and deep — farm techniques that might see them make some aggressive strikes this week.
Whereas the Orioles are coming off a playoff look, Cincinnati’s postseason push fell brief. Nonetheless, each groups might resolve to maneuver some items to bolster their rosters heading into subsequent yr. Baltimore wants pitching, and a more in-depth now that Félix Bautista simply underwent Tommy John surgical procedure. In an identical vein, the Reds would like to bolster their rotation. We’ll see simply how aggressive these two organizations need to be.
One other staff to regulate? The Miami Marlins. Incoming President of Baseball Operations Peter Bendix comes over from the Tampa Bay Rays, and there are expectations that Bendix, answerable for a roster that made a stunning run to the postseason, will likely be aggressive over the approaching weeks.
Will Juan Soto be traded?
Splashing cash round in free company is a method of including to a roster.
Good, old school trades are one other.
In the summertime of 2022, the San Diego Padres pay a steep worth to accumulate Juan Soto from the Washington Nationals, sending then-rookies CJ Abrams and MacKenzie Gore to Washington, together with prospects Robert Hassell III, James Wooden, Jarlin Susana, and veteran slugger Luke Voit.
The transfer helped the Padres advance to the postseason, however they ultimately got here up brief, dropping to the Philadelphia Phillies within the NLCS.
Nevertheless, final season the Padres got here again to Earth, ending third within the NL West with an 82-80 report. Soto did his half, placing a .275/.410/.519 slash line together with 35 residence runs, however now San Diego is dealing with some robust choices.
Based on reporting from The Athletic, the Padres wanted to take out a short-term mortgage to fulfill payroll on the finish of the season, and the group is dealing with a giant price range crunch. When you think about that, the truth that Soto is on his ultimate yr earlier than free company, and that the Padres have a lot of points to handle on the roster, buying and selling considered one of baseball’s greatest hitters is likely to be their greatest plan of action.
Who would possibly make a play for Soto? Properly a type of groups above, the Yankees, tops the record. New York is already in discussions with San Diego on a possible deal, nevertheless, in line with at least one report such talks have stalled in latest days. The Blue Jays, who as we outlined right here are in on the Ohtani sweepstakes, are one other potential suitor.
So whereas Ohtani’s free company is one massive storyline, a possible Soto blockbuster may very well be one other.
How will the pitching market play out?
The outdated adages of “you’ll be able to by no means have sufficient good pitching” and “good pitching beats good hitting” have been examined a bit final season, as a lot of groups mashed their manner into the postseason.
Nonetheless, there are a variety of groups that consider they are often contenders subsequent yr, offered they put collectively the best rotations.
The issue? Good arms is likely to be robust to search out this offseason.
Contemplate this: On this record of the greatest free brokers obtainable this winter from USA Immediately, simply 19 are beginning pitchers. And that features Ohtani, who will likely be taking a yr off from pitching as a result of UCL damage he suffered on the finish of final season.
After all, the following few days would possibly see some pitchers moved through commerce, however the competitors for beginning pitchers is likely to be fierce in Nashville this week.
Who indicators Yoshinobu Yamamoto?
One other pitcher listed on the above-referenced record?
Yoshinobu Yamamoto.
The correct-hander went 16-6 with a 1.21 ERA, and a 0.884 WHIP, in 23 appearances throughout the 2023 Nippon Skilled Baseball season. Yamamoto additionally struck out 169 batters and walked simply 28 batters over 164 innings of labor. That noticed Yamamoto earn his third-straight MVP award, becoming a member of Ichiro Suzuki and Hisashi Yamada as the one gamers to safe such honors 3 times in a row.
And, given Ohtani’s UCL damage, many take into account Yamamoto one of the best free agent pitching choice obtainable.
The righty has 4 devastating pitches: A fastball, a curveball, a splitter, and a cutter, and because of his look on the World Baseball Traditional final season, we now have knowledge on simply how robust these 4 pitches will be. The fastball sits within the mid-90s, and throughout the WBC topped out at 97 mph.
Like Ohtani and lots of different Japanese pitchers, Yamamoto incorporates a robust splitter, one that may break into the 90s but additionally options greater than 30 inches of vertical drop. Of his 11 strikeouts within the WBC, seven got here on splitters (the opposite 4 got here on fastballs). Greater than half of the swinging strikes he induced within the WBC got here on this pitch.
Right here’s a take a look at it:
Yeah. Good luck.
Yamamoto additionally incorporates a cutter, however his greatest pitch is likely to be his curveball. It’s comparable in some ways to what we see from Clayton Kershaw, a pitch with a number of vertical drop and break to it:
Yamamoto additionally makes use of a novel grip, referred to as the “Ginoza,” that sees him place his thumb upward as he releases the pitch:
Here’s a deeper dive into that pitch:
Early indications are that the worth tag for his providers will likely be north of $200 million, with some expectations that he might signal a deal placing him behind solely Gerrit Cole within the beginning pitching contract market. As you would possibly count on, big-spending golf equipment just like the Yankees and the Mets are within the combine for Yamamoto, however different rivals reportedly embody the Dodgers, the Purple Sox, the Diamondbacks, the Giants, and the Phillies.
Wherever he lands, you’ll want to be watching subsequent season.
Corridor of Fame voting kicks issues off
Whereas participant motion is the main target this week, the MLB Winter Conferences kick off with a gathering of the Modern Period Committee to find out if any of the eight nominees for induction into the Baseball Corridor of Fame from the Modern Baseball Period Managers/Executives/Umpires poll will likely be enshrined in Cooperstown.
The eight nominees this yr are:
Cito Gaston (supervisor)
Davey Johnson (supervisor)
Jim Leyland (supervisor)
Ed Montague (umpire)
Hank Peters (govt)
Lou Piniella (supervisor)
Joe West (umpire)
Invoice White (govt)
The members of the Committee will forged their ultimate ballots on Sunday, and the outcomes will likely be introduced Sunday evening at 7:30 p.m. ET on MLB Community’s “MLB Reside.”
And sure, there’s nonetheless the Ohtani matter
After all, that is the storyline that may dominate all the week.
The place will Shohei Ohtani be enjoying baseball subsequent season.
We walked by means of the principle contenders earlier this week, and consensus going into the MLB Winter Conferences stays that the Dodgers are the favorites. They continue to be so at DraftKings Sportsbook.
However till ink is put to paper, something can occur.